{
  "prereg": "posts/2026-08-18-prereg-grasp-sft-v2-joint-pdnorm.md",
  "rule": "FAIL iff endpoint worse than baseline by > +0.05 pooled chunk MAE with paired bootstrap CI95 excluding 0",
  "guard": "PASS",
  "pooled": {
    "endpoint": {
      "chunk_mae": 28.80828,
      "first_mae": 28.02424
    },
    "baseline": {
      "chunk_mae": 58.14338,
      "first_mae": 57.61157
    }
  },
  "paired": {
    "delta_pooled": -29.3351,
    "delta_frame_mean": -29.70382,
    "ci95": [
      -30.02748,
      -29.37825
    ],
    "ci_excludes_zero": true,
    "n_frames": 15056
  },
  "per_motor_chunk_mae": {
    "shoulder_pan": {
      "endpoint": 20.9961,
      "baseline": 23.4622,
      "delta": -2.4661
    },
    "shoulder_lift": {
      "endpoint": 49.7746,
      "baseline": 104.435,
      "delta": -54.6604
    },
    "elbow_flex": {
      "endpoint": 36.8353,
      "baseline": 99.3006,
      "delta": -62.4653
    },
    "wrist_flex": {
      "endpoint": 22.1369,
      "baseline": 27.1068,
      "delta": -4.9699
    },
    "wrist_roll": {
      "endpoint": 24.2434,
      "baseline": 71.1701,
      "delta": -46.9267
    },
    "gripper": {
      "endpoint": 18.8596,
      "baseline": 23.3813,
      "delta": -4.5217
    }
  },
  "state_copy": "byte-match"
}